Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Frosinone · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Genoa 1-1 Frosinone
Original prediction
Frosinone
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 43.9% | 29.2% | -14.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 28.5% | 26.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 27.6% | 44.7% | 17.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Frosinone
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Frosinone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GenoaLLLWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FrosinoneWDWLW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GenoaFrosinone
11.1Attack66.7
22.2Defence66.7
0.0Form66.7
16.7Power66.7
0.96xG1.85