Genoavs
Fiorentina
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A · 10/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorentina · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina
Original prediction
Fiorentina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.19 | 29.8% | 35.4% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 29.0% | 26.9% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 41.2% | 37.7% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Fiorentina
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Fiorentina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60