Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Como · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Genoa 1-4 Como
Original prediction
Como
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.00 | 19.0% | 27.7% | 8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.9% | 28.5% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 53.1% | 43.8% | -9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Como
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Como has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GenoaLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ComoWDDDD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
GenoaComo
0.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence66.7
0.0Form66.7
21.5Power64.8
1.03xG1.36