Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gareji 0-0 Telavi, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gareji 2-1 Telavi
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.67 | 24.5% | 33.9% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.4% | 31.0% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.87 | 48.0% | 35.1% | -12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Projected Score
Gareji 0–0 Telavi
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.0%
Model confidence
35.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GarejiLLWLD
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TelaviWDDDL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GarejiTelavi
41.7Attack39.3
65.5Defence69.0
59.5Form54.8
57.8Power56.0
0.84xG0.74