Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gareji · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gareji 0-0 Sioni, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gareji 3-3 Sioni
Original prediction
Gareji
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.8% | 46.6% | 7.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 30.9% | 30.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 30.3% | 22.8% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.93 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Projected Score
Gareji 0–0 Sioni
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Gareji
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Gareji has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GarejiWWLDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SioniWWLLL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GarejiSioni
42.0Attack42.0
75.4Defence62.3
66.7Form44.9
64.1Power51.2
1.06xG0.58