Galway Unitedvs
Derry City
COMPLETEDIreland · FAI Cup · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derry City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Galway United 0-2 Derry City
Original prediction
Derry City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 29.0% | 36.1% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.2% | 25.6% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 43.8% | 38.3% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Derry City
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Derry City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40