Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gagra · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gagra 0-0 Meshakhte, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gagra 1-1 Meshakhte
Original prediction
Gagra
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.6% | 49.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.3% | 28.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.08 | 22.1% | 21.8% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Projected Score
Gagra 0–0 Meshakhte
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Gagra
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Gagra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GagraLDLWD
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
MeshakhteLDDWL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GagraMeshakhte
30.8Attack24.4
53.8Defence44.9
35.9Form20.5
42.5Power32.6
1.13xG0.65