Fulhamvs
Manchester United
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/20/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fulham 1-1 Manchester United
Original prediction
Manchester United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.52 | 27.2% | 32.2% | 5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 24.9% | 25.4% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 47.9% | 42.4% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.84 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Manchester United
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Manchester United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60