Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fátima · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fátima 1-3 Nazarenos
Original prediction
Fátima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 57.0% | 53.0% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.5% | 25.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 5.21 | 17.5% | 21.3% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Fátima
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Fátima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FátimaWLLWW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
NazarenosLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 13 · avg 0.20/2.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
FátimaNazarenos
50.0Attack8.3
58.3Defence16.7
33.3Form0.0
44.5Power14.6
1.89xG0.82