Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Frosinone · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Frosinone 3-2 Venezia
Original prediction
Frosinone
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 35.3% | 45.4% | 10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 27.5% | 27.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 37.2% | 27.6% | -9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Frosinone
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Frosinone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FrosinoneDWLWL
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
VeneziaLLLWD
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FrosinoneVenezia
50.0Attack0.0
83.3Defence33.3
50.0Form0.0
59.3Power18.3
1.72xG0.86