Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Frosinone · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Frosinone 4-2 Sassuolo
Original prediction
Frosinone
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 39.0% | 44.6% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 25.8% | 25.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 35.2% | 30.3% | -4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Frosinone
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Frosinone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FrosinoneLWWDW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SassuoloDLWDD
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
FrosinoneSassuolo
50.0Attack55.6
61.1Defence44.4
55.6Form44.4
56.1Power51.1
1.66xG1.18