Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Como · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Frosinone 2-0 Como
Original prediction
Como
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.85 | 16.3% | 30.5% | 14.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.58 | 20.8% | 25.3% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 62.9% | 44.2% | -18.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Como
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Como has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FrosinoneDWDWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ComoWWWWD
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
FrosinoneComo
58.3Attack75.0
66.7Defence66.7
58.3Form83.3
61.6Power76.6
1.31xG1.39