Formartine Unitedvs
Montrose
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montrose · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Formartine United 3-2 Montrose
Original prediction
Montrose
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.79 | 23.6% | 29.7% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.3% | 24.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.72 | 52.1% | 45.8% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Montrose
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Montrose has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00