Fluminensevs
Vasco DA Gama
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 9/6/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fluminense · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fluminense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama
Original prediction
Fluminense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 46.9% | 59.5% | 12.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 28.3% | 22.6% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 3.87 | 24.7% | 18.0% | -6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Fluminense
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
59.5%
Fluminense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20