Fluminensevs
Santos
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fluminense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fluminense 1-2 Santos
Original prediction
Fluminense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 42.1% | 50.5% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 27.7% | 23.4% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 30.2% | 26.1% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Fluminense
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Fluminense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00