Fluminensevs
Coritiba
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/9/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fluminense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba
Original prediction
Fluminense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 64.8% | 56.9% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.45 | 21.1% | 22.7% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 6.70 | 14.0% | 20.4% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Fluminense
Probability
56.9%
Model confidence
56.9%
Fluminense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60