Fleetwood Townvs
Shrewsbury
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/5/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fleetwood Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fleetwood Town 2-0 Shrewsbury
Original prediction
Fleetwood Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 48.8% | 44.8% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.4% | 28.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.91 | 23.8% | 26.3% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Fleetwood Town
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Fleetwood Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40