Fleetwood Townvs
Sheffield Utd
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 9/16/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sheffield Utd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fleetwood Town 1-0 Sheffield Utd
Original prediction
Sheffield Utd
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.91 | 19.0% | 34.8% | 15.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.6% | 26.1% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.62 | 57.4% | 39.1% | -18.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sheffield Utd
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Sheffield Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60