Fleetwood Townvs
Rochdale
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fleetwood Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fleetwood Town 1-0 Rochdale, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fleetwood Town 1-2 Rochdale
Original prediction
Fleetwood Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 49.6% | 42.9% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.0% | 29.6% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.80 | 24.3% | 27.6% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Projected Score
Fleetwood Town 1–0 Rochdale
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Fleetwood Town
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Fleetwood Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40