Flamengovs
Fluminense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/11/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Flamengo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense
Original prediction
Flamengo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 63.3% | 59.6% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.26 | 22.0% | 22.7% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 6.38 | 14.7% | 17.8% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Flamengo
Probability
59.6%
Model confidence
59.6%
Flamengo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FlamengoDWDWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FluminenseWWLLW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FlamengoFluminense
65.5Attack55.2
71.3Defence58.6
70.1Form58.6
68.6Power59.4
1.79xG0.84