Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Flamengo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Flamengo 3-0 Botafogo
Original prediction
Flamengo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 66.5% | 70.5% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.61 | 20.2% | 17.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 7.03 | 13.3% | 12.1% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Flamengo
Probability
70.5%
Model confidence
70.5%
Flamengo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FlamengoLWWDW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BotafogoLWLLD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FlamengoBotafogo
65.2Attack53.6
69.6Defence46.4
65.2Form43.5
65.8Power49.1
2.36xG0.85