Flamengovs
Atletico-MG
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/26/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Flamengo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Flamengo 1-0 Atletico-MG, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Flamengo 3-2 Atletico-MG
Original prediction
Flamengo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 76.0% | 67.1% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.91 | 16.0% | 20.6% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 11.75 | 8.0% | 12.3% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Projected Score
Flamengo 1–0 Atletico-MG
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Flamengo
Probability
67.1%
Model confidence
67.1%
Flamengo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FlamengoDWDWD
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Atletico-MGLWWWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FlamengoAtletico-MG
65.6Attack45.2
73.1Defence62.4
72.0Form53.8
69.9Power55.2
1.66xG0.64