Fiorentina Wvs
Sassuolo W
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A Women · 10/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorentina W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiorentina W 2-0 Sassuolo W
Original prediction
Fiorentina W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.6% | 44.7% | -15.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 22.3% | 26.3% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 5.29 | 17.1% | 29.0% | 11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Fiorentina W
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Fiorentina W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20