Fiorentinavs
Torino
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A · 9/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorentina · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiorentina 1-2 Torino
Original prediction
Fiorentina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 48.9% | 39.3% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.5% | 28.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.19 | 22.6% | 32.4% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Fiorentina
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Fiorentina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20