Fiorentinavs
Napoli
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A · 9/20/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Napoli · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli
Original prediction
Napoli
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.20 | 29.7% | 29.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 28.0% | 26.3% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 42.4% | 44.2% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Napoli
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Napoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FiorentinaWWLLL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
NapoliWLLLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FiorentinaNapoli
41.7Attack50.0
8.3Defence58.3
25.0Form50.0
27.9Power54.5
1.20xG1.68