GGOALVIO

Italy · Serie A · 8/29/2026, 4:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Fiorentina · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0

Mediumconfidence

Fiorentina are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Frosinone are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Fiorentina hold a 16.9-point power-rating edge (55.3 v 38.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.4% in the Serie A, while Fiorentina holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Fiorentina

Probability

66.5%

Model confidence

12.4%

Fiorentina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

FiorentinaWDDWL

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FrosinoneLDDWW

GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FiorentinaFrosinone
52.3Attack38.6
60.4Defence39.5
51.4Form30.7
55.3Power38.4
2.13xG0.80
View match centre →