Fiorentinavs
Frosinone
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A · 8/29/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorentina · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiorentina 0-3 Frosinone
Original prediction
Fiorentina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 56.5% | 40.8% | -15.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.93 | 24.1% | 27.8% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 4.92 | 19.3% | 31.4% | 12.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Fiorentina
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Fiorentina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40