Fiorentinavs
Frosinone
SCHEDULEDItaly · Serie A · 8/29/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorentina · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Fiorentina are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Frosinone are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Fiorentina hold a 16.9-point power-rating edge (55.3 v 38.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.4% in the Serie A, while Fiorentina holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fiorentina
Probability
66.5%
Model confidence
12.4%
Fiorentina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00