Ferro 2vs
Independiente Res.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Reserve League · 10/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente Res. · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (15%), 0-1 (12%), 0-3 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ferro 2 0-0 Independiente Res.
Original prediction
Independiente Res.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.23 | 27.6% | 24.3% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 24.9% | 26.0% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 47.5% | 49.6% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–215%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–311%
Predicted outcome
Independiente Res.
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Independiente Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00