FC UFAvs
Arsenal Tula
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC UFA · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC UFA 2-0 Arsenal Tula
Original prediction
FC UFA
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.78 | 33.2% | 54.3% | 21.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 29.4% | 24.2% | -5.3 pts |
| Away | 2.47 | 37.4% | 21.5% | -15.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
FC UFA
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
FC UFA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC UFALDLDL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Arsenal TulaWLWLD
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FC UFAArsenal Tula
41.0Attack38.5
64.1Defence38.5
46.2Form41.0
51.9Power42.1
1.66xG0.74