FC Tallinnvs
Tartu Welco
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 10/15/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tartu Welco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 1-4 (9%), 0-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Tallinn 0-7 Tartu Welco
Original prediction
Tartu Welco
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.66 | 19.3% | 16.2% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.40 | 20.4% | 17.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 60.3% | 66.0% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.1–49%
- 3.0–38%
Predicted outcome
Tartu Welco
Probability
66.0%
Model confidence
66.0%
Tartu Welco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 17 · avg 1.80/3.40
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20