Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Sochi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Sochi 1-0 FC UFA
Original prediction
FC Sochi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 59.2% | 48.1% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 24.3% | 27.1% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 5.67 | 16.5% | 24.8% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
FC Sochi
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
FC Sochi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC SochiDWLLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FC UFADLDLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FC SochiFC UFA
58.3Attack44.4
61.1Defence63.9
63.9Form50.0
62.1Power54.2
1.39xG0.92