FC Sochivs
Chelyabinsk
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 8/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Sochi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Sochi 2-1 Chelyabinsk
Original prediction
FC Sochi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 60.0% | 65.3% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.4% | 19.7% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 5.58 | 16.6% | 15.0% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
FC Sochi
Probability
65.3%
Model confidence
65.3%
FC Sochi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC SochiWWWWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ChelyabinskDLLWL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC SochiChelyabinsk
66.7Attack38.1
58.3Defence38.1
66.7Form33.3
64.1Power38.1
2.45xG0.85