FC Portovs
Moreirense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/4/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Porto · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Porto 2-1 Moreirense
Original prediction
FC Porto
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 82.7% | 64.5% | -18.2 pts |
| Draw | 7.61 | 12.4% | 20.0% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 19.42 | 4.9% | 15.4% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
FC Porto
Probability
64.5%
Model confidence
64.5%
FC Porto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60