Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Porto · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Porto 3-1 Benfica
Original prediction
FC Porto
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 32.3% | 40.0% | 7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.6% | 26.2% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 39.0% | 33.8% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
FC Porto
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
FC Porto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC PortoWLWWW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BenficaWWWWW
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
FC PortoBenfica
83.3Attack100.0
88.9Defence77.8
100.0Form88.9
91.7Power85.5
1.51xG1.24