Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Dallas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Dallas 0-0 Austin
Original prediction
FC Dallas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 56.1% | 63.6% | 7.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.9% | 18.1% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 4.47 | 21.0% | 18.3% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.09 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
FC Dallas
Probability
63.6%
Model confidence
63.6%
FC Dallas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FC DallasWWWDL
GF 11 · GA 13 · avg 2.20/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
AustinWDDWL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
FC DallasAustin
65.3Attack42.7
44.0Defence41.3
57.3Form38.7
57.1Power42.9
2.60xG1.26