FC Cincinnativs
DC United
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Cincinnati · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Cincinnati 2-1 DC United
Original prediction
FC Cincinnati
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 59.3% | 57.1% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 21.2% | 18.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.80 | 19.5% | 24.4% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
FC Cincinnati
Probability
57.1%
Model confidence
57.1%
FC Cincinnati has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80