FBC Melgarvs
Sport Boys
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 9/20/2026, 1:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FBC Melgar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: FBC Melgar 1-0 Sport Boys, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
FBC Melgar 1-1 Sport Boys
Original prediction
FBC Melgar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 64.3% | 53.8% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 21.9% | 26.5% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 6.66 | 13.8% | 19.8% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Projected Score
FBC Melgar 1–0 Sport Boys
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
FBC Melgar
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
FBC Melgar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FBC MelgarWWLDW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Sport BoysWLWDW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FBC MelgarSport Boys
56.4Attack35.9
64.1Defence67.9
57.7Form47.4
59.8Power51.9
1.19xG0.69