Famalicaovs
Sporting CP
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/13/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting CP · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Famalicao 1-1 Sporting CP
Original prediction
Sporting CP
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.11 | 15.4% | 20.4% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.27 | 22.0% | 24.2% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.50 | 62.6% | 55.4% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Sporting CP
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
55.4%
Sporting CP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80