Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Famalicao · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Famalicao 1-4 Alverca
Original prediction
Famalicao
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 50.3% | 46.9% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 28.0% | 27.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.33 | 21.7% | 25.4% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Famalicao
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Famalicao has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FamalicaoWDDDL
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AlvercaWWLDL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FamalicaoAlverca
42.9Attack42.9
66.7Defence47.6
33.3Form38.1
47.6Power45.1
1.45xG0.91