Exeter Cityvs
Fleetwood Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Exeter City 0-0 Fleetwood Town, with an exact score probability of 30%.
Prediction record
Final result
Exeter City 2-1 Fleetwood Town
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 38.8% | 35.9% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 29.4% | 33.2% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 31.8% | 30.8% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Projected Score
Exeter City 0–0 Fleetwood Town
Exact score probability: 30%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.2%
Model confidence
35.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Exeter CityWDWDW
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Fleetwood TownLWDWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Exeter CityFleetwood Town
22.2Attack38.9
83.3Defence58.3
44.4Form38.9
52.0Power47.4
0.70xG0.54