Exeter Cityvs
Crewe
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Exeter City 0-0 Crewe, with an exact score probability of 34%.
Prediction record
Final result
Exeter City 2-0 Crewe
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 37.8% | 25.9% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.4% | 36.1% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.8% | 38.0% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Projected Score
Exeter City 0–0 Crewe
Exact score probability: 34%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
38.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Exeter CityDWDWL
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CreweWWDWD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Exeter CityCrewe
18.2Attack45.5
81.8Defence72.7
39.4Form63.6
48.9Power63.7
0.43xG0.68