Exeter Cityvs
Barnet
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barnet · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Exeter City 1-1 Barnet
Original prediction
Barnet
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.59 | 25.9% | 30.3% | 4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.3% | 26.9% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 48.8% | 42.9% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.68 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Barnet
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Barnet has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Exeter CityLWLLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BarnetDWWLD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Exeter CityBarnet
33.3Attack88.9
66.7Defence55.6
33.3Form77.8
45.5Power75.3
1.16xG1.45