Evertonvs
Manchester United
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/6/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Everton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Everton 2-2 Manchester United
Original prediction
Everton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.33 | 28.5% | 39.0% | 10.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 26.6% | 26.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 44.9% | 34.5% | -10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Everton
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Everton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00