Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Everton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Everton 1-0 Ipswich
Original prediction
Everton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 52.6% | 50.2% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 25.3% | 24.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.29 | 22.2% | 25.1% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Everton
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Everton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EvertonWDDDW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
IpswichLWLLW
GF 10 · GA 14 · avg 2.00/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
EvertonIpswich
41.7Attack58.3
75.0Defence16.7
50.0Form50.0
57.4Power45.2
1.93xG1.16