Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Everton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Everton 0-2 Chelsea
Original prediction
Everton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.11 | 30.5% | 43.3% | 12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 26.0% | 23.9% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 43.5% | 32.8% | -10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Everton
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Everton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EvertonDWWDD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ChelseaWLDWL
GF 14 · GA 11 · avg 2.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
EvertonChelsea
44.4Attack83.3
72.2Defence27.8
55.6Form55.6
59.9Power55.7
1.93xG1.39