Estudiantes La Plata Resvs
Lanús Res.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Reserve League · 10/14/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estudiantes La Plata Res · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estudiantes La Plata Res 4-4 Lanús Res.
Original prediction
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.1% | 38.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.0% | 29.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 31.9% | 32.0% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Estudiantes La Plata Res has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60