Argentina · Reserve League · 9/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estudiantes La Plata Res · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estudiantes La Plata Res 2-0 Defensa y Justicia Res.
Original prediction
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.3% | 38.6% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.0% | 29.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 33.7% | 31.9% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Estudiantes La Plata Res has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60