Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Braga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estrela 2-1 SC Braga
Original prediction
SC Braga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.33 | 17.7% | 31.8% | 14.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 25.0% | 25.8% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 57.3% | 42.5% | -14.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
SC Braga
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
SC Braga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EstrelaDWDDW
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
SC BragaWWDWD
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
EstrelaSC Braga
75.0Attack55.6
33.3Defence66.7
50.0Form77.8
56.2Power70.7
1.54xG1.58