Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estrela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estrela 2-2 Famalicao
Original prediction
Estrela
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 31.7% | 42.1% | 10.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 29.8% | 27.5% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 38.5% | 30.4% | -8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Estrela
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Estrela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EstrelaWDDWW
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FamalicaoDLLDW
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
EstrelaFamalicao
77.8Attack16.7
33.3Defence66.7
55.6Form16.7
59.1Power36.5
1.65xG1.06