Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estrela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estrela 0-2 Casa Pia
Original prediction
Estrela
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 53.7% | 56.4% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.9% | 23.4% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 4.63 | 20.3% | 20.3% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Estrela
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
Estrela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EstrelaWLLDW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Casa PiaWLWLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EstrelaCasa Pia
58.3Attack12.5
37.5Defence29.2
41.7Form16.7
48.8Power22.5
2.57xG0.93