Estorilvs
Moreirense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 10/25/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estoril · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estoril 1-3 Moreirense
Original prediction
Estoril
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 51.6% | 40.6% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.2% | 28.8% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 4.24 | 22.2% | 30.6% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Estoril
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Estoril has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60